Liquidity risk

What is liquidness hazard and how directors deal with it?

COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT Banking

1. Introduction

Technological advancement and internationalisation has led to rapid inventions in fiscal markets and ordinances. This altering environment in which Bankss find themselves presents great chances but besides a broad scope of hazards while runing. Such hazards are involvement rate hazard, market hazard, recognition hazard, off-balance-sheet hazard, engineering and operational hazard, foreign exchange hazard, state or crowned head hazard, liquidness hazard and insolvency hazard. In this paper we attempt to supply a development of liquidness hazard and the manner directors deal with it. For fiscal establishments it is an mundane activity to supply hard currency to their clients. Furthermore, the recent economic crisis proved that Bankss are peculiarly vulnerable to liquidness jobs so it is of a cardinal importance for directors to oversee, prognosis and program bank ‘s place as they are considered to be “too large to fail” . ( Saunders, 1949 )

2. Why is liquidness necessary?

Harmonizing to the Bank of International Settlements ( BIS ) , liquidness is the ability of the bank to fund additions in assets and run into duties as they come due, without incurring unacceptable losingss. This means that a fiscal house has instantly entree to spendable financess when they are required or can raise financess by selling assets or adoption. Liquid financess are needed from a fiscal establishment in order to run into clients ‘ demands or in the instance of bank ‘s growing. More specifically banking activities include salvation of sedimentations, covering of loans, pay off of old adoption backdowns of money from histories and recognition petition that establishments wish to maintain. It is indispensable to keep a balance between short-run assets, which are represented by loans, and short term liabilities which are represented by sedimentations. What is more, the clip dimension is a major factor so Bankss should administer clip carefully as some liquidness demands are immediate. Liquidity deficit may take to shutting of an single bank and accordingly this can restrain the whole economic system. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

3. Beginnings of liquidness

But how we generate liquidness? While every fiscal dealing is straight related to liquidness, Bankss have raised several options to match to these demands. The most liquid plus is hard currency and it is used to cover backdowns. Conversely, Bankss tend to maintain hard currency degrees low as hard currency militias pay no involvement.

Therefore, another of import beginning is considered to be the sale of assets and largely the settlement of investing securities. The settlement of assets pay involvement grosss but in some instances may be dearly-won for the bank or non effectual, while when the plus is really liquid returns are low. In add-on, clients ‘ sedimentations and clients ‘ loans repayment can be possible beginnings. ( Saunders, 1949 )

Heffernan ( 1956 ) , advocates that Bankss by maintaining a spread between their short term sedimentations and long term loans can bring forth money ( adulthood mismatching ) . This pattern, in which Bankss retain a fraction of their sedimentations in modesty and impart out the staying, is noun as fractional modesty loaning.

Borrowing financess from other Bankss or from the Central Bank can be another alternate component in the supply of liquidness but besides the last solution for illiquidity. Obviously the appropriate degree of liquidness can be achieved through pull offing assets and liabilities. In many instances authoritiess insure sedimentations so the desirable degree of liquidness is stable and Bankss are protected.

4. Liquid jobs

Fiscal houses frequently face important liquidness jobs. This major exposure to liquidness force per unit areas arises from several beginnings which can upset the balance between liabilities and plus s of the balance sheet.

On the liability side, liquidness jobs can be caused when depositors withdraw big amounts of money. The grounds that can trip this remotion is usual the deficiency of assurance in the bank or in the banking system and hapless direction policies. When the tally starts, the value of liquidated bank assets decrease, so everyone wants to take their sedimentations. The fact that clients rush to the bank to take out their money every bit rapidly as possible to avoid losing it is known as bank tally. And as a bank tally escalates and more people take out their sedimentations, the possibility of default additions, and this encourages extra backdowns. This can enforce bankruptcy and the follow-on series of bankruptcies can bring on an economic recession. This susceptibleness of Bankss can make systemic hazard, which means job to the full banking system.

On the side of assets of the balance sheet, liquidness problems can be triggered by unannounced loan default. These are chiefly related with the prolong of recognition lines something that is offered from Bankss to clients and in instances of a deficit burdens bank ‘s place.

In both facets a fiscal establishment, normally the cardinal bank, intervene with remedial steps, by operating as the loaner of the last resort or as a lifeboat deliverance. By the term “lender of last resort” we refer to the lending from the cardinal bank that aims to protect depositors and hedge possible extended terror to the economic system caused by the prostration of a bank. To boot, the lifeboat deliverance map is when the cardinal bank demands from another healthy bank to supply loan to the debatable 1. What is more, another method that is followed by some cardinal Bankss is the “too large to fail” method. The “ Too Big to Fail ” is a phrase states that, a bank is a big and built-in portion of the economic system that authorities will supply support to debar its prostration. The aid is for big Bankss whereas weak 1s are left to fall down and this gives all Bankss a motive to enlarge their assets even though it means obtaining hazardous loaners. However, despite the fact that this intercession is good, the money borrowed from the Central Bank or from the interbank market have a penal rate which is dearly-won. ( Heffernan, 1956 )

5. What is liquidness hazard?

“The hazard that arises from the trouble of selling an plus. An investing may sometimes necessitate to be sold rapidly. Unfortunately, an deficient secondary market may forestall the settlement or restrict the financess that can be generated from the plus. Some assets are extremely liquid and have low liquidness hazard ( such as stock of a publically traded company ) , while other assets are extremely illiquid and have high liquidness hazard ( such as house ) ” ( investorwords.com )

As it is derived from the definition, liquidness hazard can be distinguished in two types, plus liquidness and support liquidness. When an plus can non be sold by ground of market illiquidity it is considered as plus liquidness. This is the cause for doing expressed liquidness militias, widening command or offer spread and lengthening keeping period for Value at Risk ( VaR ) computations. The VaR theoretical account is used to calculate a bank ‘s market hazard. VaR is able to gauge hazard while it happens and is an of import consideration when Bankss make trading or fudging determinations.

On the other manus, support liquidness is the hazard that liabilities can non be met when they fall due or can merely be met at an uneconomic monetary value. Typically, funding liquidness hazard depends on the handiness of the liquidness beginnings and the ability to fulfill the budget restraint over the several period of clip.

The grounds that consider breeding liquidness hazard are two: a liability-side ground and an asset-side ground. The first cause, liability-side, is brought approximately when a liability holder, like depositors, demand hard currency instantly and they withdraw their sedimentations. This affair can be dealed with borrowing extra financess or with selling assets. The 2nd cause is asset-side liquidness hazard and is the ability to fulfill loan committednesss. As it happens with liability backdowns, Bankss can run into such liquidness demands by running down its hard currency assets, selling off other liquidness assets or borrowing extra financess. ( Wikipedia, 2009 )

6. Measurement of liquidness hazard

While the job of liquidness hazard is going more pertinent to the modern banking sector, a sound procedure for mensurating and supervising liquidness should be applied. In order to set up a measurement frame some parametric quantities should be taken into history. First, as it is old mentioned, assorted types of hazards may come up with strong interaction between them. Therefore, a bank should acknowledge all this types and the events that can make them. Second, it is important to measure hard currency influxs and escapes and liquidness value of assets to cognize if it has the ability to confront a deficit. A 3rd factor that should be considered is that a bank should command its liquidness hazard place for all future flows of assets and liabilities, all beginnings of liquidness, all currencies in which bank it is active and correspond activities.

The measuring tools that a bank can utilize are liquidity ratios, which compute the ability of current assets to run into short term duties. The two indexs that are used more repeatedly are the undermentioned:

1. Current ratio=Current assets current liabilities

This ratio contrasts current assets with current liabilities so as to bespeak short term solvency and debt services.

2. Quick ratio=cash and histories receivablescurrent liabilities

The acerb trial or speedy ratio depicts the company ‘s capableness to pay back immediate committednesss with hard currency or hard currency equivalents.

The results of these indexes rely on the fiscal fortunes, on each single bank ‘s experience and on the quality of assets that are used for liquidness ratios. ( Bi, 2009 ) ( Glantz, 2003 )

7. Schemes for liquidness hazard direction

It is crystal clear, from all mentioned above, that liquidness hazard is one of the most of import types of hazard that a bank or any other company can acquire together. The recent convulsion in the fiscal system was the most appropriate and representative fact to turn out that pull offing liquidness hazard is critical for the safety and soundness of fiscal establishments. Liquidity hazard direction systems should reflect an establishment ‘s complexness, hazard profile and range of operations. ( federalreserve.gov, 2009 )

That is why directors have developed schemes in order to cover with liquidness jobs like:

a ) Supplying liquidness from assets ( assets liquidity direction )

B ) Trusting on borrowed liquidness to run into hard currency demands ( liability direction )

degree Celsius ) Balanced ( plus and liability ) liquidness direction

( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

a ) Asset Liquidity Management ( or Asset Conversion ) Schemes

One of the oldest schemes that directors use to cover with liquidness demands is plus transition. Banks and other depositary establishments apply this scheme by hive awaying liquidness in assets, chiefly in hard currency and marketable securities. When is necessary these assets are converted into hard currency in order to cover the originating demands. But first of all we have to do clear that an plus is consider to be liquid when it has a ready market ( can be converted into hard currency instantly ) , it has a stable monetary value ( the plus can be sold rapidly without important lessenings in monetary value ) and it is reversible ( the marketer can retrieve his initial investing with small hazard or loss )

The most popular liquid assets are exchequer measures, federal financess loans, certifications of sedimentation, municipal bonds, federal bureau securities, bankers ‘ credences and Eurocurrency loans. Asset transition scheme is less hazardous than adoptions and that is why it is normally used by little fiscal establishments. The chance cost is regarded to be a disadvantage of this method as selling assets means loss of future net incomes that they might hold brought if were non sold. Furthermore, something that directors must take into history is the fact that assets with the least net income potency are sold foremost to minimise the chance cost. Last but non least, liquid assets have the lowest returns and this is the ground that they do non dwell a profitable investing. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

B ) Borrowed Liquidity ( Liability ) Management Strategies

This scheme is besides known as purchased liquidness and involves borrowing from money market to countervail liquidness demand. It is used by a broad array of fiscal establishments as it has a series or advantages. The bank can borrow financess merely when it is necessary without losing high returns. Furthermore, this method gives the right to the house to maintain its plus portfolio unchanged if it is profitable. Finally, the adoption establishment has the control of the involvement rate. When a big sum of financess is needed the offered rate is high but when fewer financess are required the offer rate is lower. The volatility of involvement rates makes purchased liquidness the most hazardous attack. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

degree Celsius ) Balanced Liquidity Management Strategies

This scheme combines the usage of plus transition and borrowed liquidness attacks. In balanced direction expected demands for hard currency are covered by stored liquidness in assets while unexpected hard currency demands are met from near-term adoptions. There is grounds that is the best liquidness direction scheme. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

8. Estimating liquidness demands

Banks attempt to foretell their liquidness needs utilizing multiplex attacks. Though these attacks may non give accurate consequences, they give to Bankss the chance to be able to confront their demands. Liquid estimation enables Bankss to hold liquidness militias including both a planned and a protective constituent. The planned constituent consists of the militias that were predicted recently while the protective constituent consists of excess militias, over those dictated by the most recent prognosis. Liquidity needs appraisal techniques include the beginnings and utilizations of financess attack, the construction of financess attack, the liquidness index attack and the market signals or subject attack. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

* The beginnings and utilizations of financess approach

Before we analyze this method we have to do clear that in the instance of a bank liquidness rises as sedimentations addition and loans decrease or liquidness diminutions when sedimentations lessening and loans increase. Whenever beginnings and utilizations do non fit we have liquidity spread. When beginnings of liquidness exceed utilizations, the bank will hold a positive liquidness spread ( excess ) . In that instance the fiscal establishment must put this excess of financess in assets in order to run into future hard currency demands. When utilizations exceed beginnings the bank has a negative liquidness spread ( shortage ) and it must raise agencies from accessible beginnings. There are three stairss involved in the beginnings and utilizations of financess approach. 1 ) Prognosis of loans and sedimentations for a specific planning period 2 ) Calculate the estimated alteration in loans and sedimentations for the same period 3 ) Estimate the net liquidness financess surplus or shortage. This can be achieved by comparing the estimation alteration in loans to the estimated alteration in sedimentations. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 ) Managers in Bankss have developed some prediction theoretical accounts such as the followers in order to gauge the alterations in loans and sedimentations.

Estimated alteration in entire loans for the approaching period is a map of: jutting growing in the economic system, projected quarterly corporate net incomes, current rate of growing in the state ‘s money supplyprojected primeloan rate minusthe commercialpaper rate, and estimated rate of rising prices

Estimated alteration in entire sedimentations for the approaching period is a map of: jutting growing in personal income in the economic system, estimatedincrease inretail gross revenues, current rate of growing in the state ‘s money supply, projected output on money market sedimentations, and estimated rate of rising prices Consequently, we have estimated liquiditydeficit or surplusfor the coming period=estimated changein deposits-estimated changein loans

( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

* The construction of financess approach

This attack involves three stairss. The first divides sedimentations and other financess beginnings into different classs depending on the chance of backdowns. As an illustration we might split a bank ‘s sedimentation and non-deposit liabilities into three classs: a ) “hot money” liabilities ( volatile liabilities ) – high involvement sensitive sedimentations and borrowed financess that expected to be withdrawn in recent period, B ) vulnerable funds- client sedimentations of important portion, possibly 25 % to 30 % is likely to be withdrawn in recent period, degree Celsius ) stable financess ( nucleus deposits/liabilities ) – financess that are non likely to be withdrawn. Second measure is the allotment of liquidness financess for each class of financess harmonizing to some operating regulations. For illustration Lashkar-e-Taiba ‘s presume that the director sets up a 95 % liquid modesty ( less any needed legal militias ) . For vulnerable financess he holds an unchanging proportion of their full sum – say 30 % – in liquid militias. For invariable financess the bankers place a smaller percentage- possibly 15 % – of their amount in liquid militias. Taking into history the premises above the liquidness modesty behind sedimentation and non-deposit liabilities would be:

Liability liquidness reserve=

0.95* ( hot money sedimentations and nondeposits funds- legal militias held )

+0.30* ( vulnerable sedimentation and non sedimentation financess – legal militias held )

+0.15* ( stable sedimentation and non sedimentation financess – legal militias held )

( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

As respects to loans the bank is supposed to do good loans. By this term we mean that the client covers the loaners loan quality rules. In that sort of clients the banker tries to sell other services every bit good in order to increase the loaner ‘s trust on the loaning association. These excess services will besides convey excess income for the bank. Management must besides seek to cipher about the maximal possible figure for entire loans and clasp in liquid militias the whole sum ( 100 % ) of the difference between the existent sum of loans outstanding and the maximal prospective for entire loans. Uniting both loan and sedimentation liquidness demands, the 3rd measure is to gauge the entire liquidness demand for the bank.

Entire liquidness requirement=

sedimentations and nondeposits liability and loan liability liquidity=

0.95* ( hot money funds- legal militias held behind hot money sedimentations )

+0.30* ( vulnerable sedimentation and nondeposit financess – required legal militias )

+0.15* ( stable sedimentation and non sedimentation financess – required legal militias )

+1.00* ( possible loans outstanding- existent loans outstanding )

Of class all these demands that mentioned above are biased estimations that depend on direction ‘s experience and doctrine. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

* Liquidity index attack

This attack estimates liquidity demands trusting on the usage of experience and industry norms. It uses different liquidness index ratios such as:

I. Cash place index: hard currency and sedimentations due from depositary establishments ? entire assets ( where big measure of hard currency shows strong pose for the bank )

II. Liquid security index: authorities securities ? Entire assets, which compares the securities that a steadfast owns with the whole mass of its plus portfolio ( big proportion of authorities securities means good liquid place ) .

III. Capacity ratio: Net loans and rentals ? Total assets which is a negative liquidness index due to the fact that loans and rentals are frequently characterized for illiquidity

IV. Hot money ratio: money market ( short-run ) assets ? volatile liabilities= ( hard currency and due from sedimentations held at other depositary institutions+ retentions of short-run securities + federal financess loans + modesty redemption understandings ) / ( big Cadmiums + Eurocurrency sedimentations + federal financess borrowed + repurchase understandings ) . This index proves whether the bank has balanced the volatile liabilities with the money market assets that could be converted quickly into hard currency. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

* Market signal ( subject ) attack

This is a qualitative attack to mensurate liquidness demands of Bankss. It is a method that centers on the obeisance of the fiscal market place which capable Bankss to concatenation of market ‘s trials.

a ) Public assurance. It is really of import for persons and establishments every bit good to see that the bank is able to run into its duties.

B ) Stock monetary value behaviour. There is a instance where the establishments ‘ stock monetary value may fall because investors realize that the bank face or it is about to confront liquidness crisis.

degree Celsius ) Hazard premiums on Cadmiums and other adoptions. The market is likely to enforce a hazard premium by higher adoption costs if it perceives that the establishment is on the route to a liquidness crisis.

vitamin D ) Loss gross revenues of assets. As we mention earlier at the liquidness schemes, the bank may sell assets when hard currency demands are direct. But this sometimes leads to important losingss. The inquiry is whether this is a exceeding invent or a common one.

vitamin E ) Meeting committednesss to recognition clients. Sometimes direction culls recognition applications because of liquidness demands when otherwise these applications would be acceptable.

degree Fahrenheit ) Borrowings from the cardinal bank. When the establishment has borrowed financess from the Central Bank more than one time and in big sum so it is something that concerns the Bank significantly.

If any of these instances are presented to the bank so direction needs to take a better expression at its liquidness policies and do some alterations if it is necessary. ( Rose and Hudgins, 2008 )

9. Examples of Risk Management

Since liquidness hazard direction is a important issue for Bankss, it is normally stated on their fiscal studies. Traveling over the one-year studies of two well-known Bankss -Alpha Bank and Millennium Bank – we take a closer expression at how they handle hazard.

Alpha Bank

Alpha Bank uses a rigorous model for hazard direction. The end is to progress this model with the purpose of avoiding any negative impacts on the establishment ‘s fiscal consequences. Directors are active and seek to maintain up with the international economic environment. The betterment and supervising of the model is under the protections of the Board of Directors. There is besides a Risk Management Committee which ensures and monitors the policies that are used. The major portion of the Group ‘s Assets is financed by client sedimentations and bonds issued by Alpha Bank. These financess may be divided in two classs: a ) Customer sedimentations used to cover hard currency demands B ) Customer sedimentations and bonds used for investing intents. The Bank proctors its liquidness hazard on a ordinary footing by calculating two liquidity Ratios:

* The Liquid Asset Ratio

* The Short -term Asset-Liability Mismatch Ratio

The tendency of these indexs in concurrence with theoretical alterations in the volumes of assets and liabilities is normally evaluated. Each twelvemonth the budget is used to stipulate the funding necessities of the Bank and Group so that liquidness ratios stay in the coveted limits the whole twelvemonth. ( Alpha Bank Business Review, 2008 )

Millennium Bank

The attitude of this Bank on Liquidity Management is to do certain that there is an equal measure of financess to cover the liabilities when they due, in normal and unnatural fortunes without serious effects on the net incomes and the repute of the establishment. The Treasury subdivision of the Bank exchanges information with other sections in order to specify the demands and the awaited hard currency flow. Liquidity indexes are capable to crisis status simulations with a figure of dissimilar scenarios. The establishment estimates on a day-to-day and quarterly footing the undermentioned ratios:

* Liquid Assets Capital Ratio

* Assets-Liabilities Gap Ratio

The Management of the liquidness hazard is approved by the Liquidity Management Committee.

Decision

The purpose of this attempt was to analyse the magnitude of liquidness hazard and the manner it is handled by the directors. The susceptibleness to this is a feature of the modern banking sector and consequently it is mandatory to supervise it taking ever into consideration the dimension of clip. The bright side of the issue is that there are ways to gauge it and go forth at the discretion of each bank what method to follow harmonizing to its doctrine. In the instance of maladminister, the effects can be damaging non merely for each establishment but for the full economic system and this is the ground that make their protection jussive mood.

Mentions:

* Casu, B. and Girardone, C. and Molyneux, P. ( 2006 ) Introduction to Banking, England: Prentice Hall.

* Glantz, M. with parts by Moody ‘s and KMV and Mum, J. ( c2003 ) Managing bank hazard: an debut to broad-base recognition technology, Amsterdam: Academic Press.

* Greuning, H. and Bratanovic, S.B. ( 2003 ) Analyzing and Managing Banking Hazard: A Framework for Assessing Corporate Governance and Financial Risk, Washington: The World Bank

* Heffernan, S. A. ( 1956 ) Modern Banking, England: Wiley.

* Rose, P. S. and Hudgins, S. C. ( c2008 ) Bank Management & A ; Financial Services, NY: Mc Graw- Hill.

* Saunders, An. and Cornett, M.M. ( 1949 ) Financial establishments direction: a hazard direction attack, NY: Mc Graw- Hill International Edition.

Web sites:

* Alpha Bank Business Review ( 2008 ) Available: hypertext transfer protocol: //www. Alpha.gr/files/investorrelations/APOLOGISMOS_2008_EN.pdf

* MILLENNIUM BANK S.A. , Consolidated Financial Statements based on the International Financial Reporting Standards adopted by the European Union the twelvemonth ended on December 31, 2008 Available: hypertext transfer protocol: //www.millenniumbank.gr/NR/rdonlyres/48D2F078-BA8E-4C2E-B9A3-DDF29BDF3B65/0/Notes_Consolidated_Group2008EN.pdf

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